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Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Bear Stearns for $2 may not hold?

In my previous post I asked the question, how is Bear Stearns trading above $2 when the deal on the table is for $2 a share. SmartMoney has an article that brings some light to the situation. Obviously this offer is just cold to the bone! There is much more behind the scenes concerning why, especially regarding the repercussions of the alternative - bankruptcy. Anyway, the shareholders who are getting the major screw are not happy and it sounds like they will fight this price. Since the process of closing the deal could drag on for 12 months, the likelihood of forcing the offer to increase may be pretty good, especially since JP Morgan is guaranteeing all of Bear's trading activity within the firm for the entire period the deal is being negotiated. What does this mean? Well, it means that Bear Stearns can still do business! That is if other investment houses trust JP Morgan's guarantee and continue to trade with Bear (note that it was the pulling out action of counterparties last week that also hurt Bear, further deterioting confidence in the firm). So, if Bear can still operate, there is a possibility it can fix its financial situation, get back to stability, and maybe even start tearing a new path on the street. In that event, Bear would be worth more. It's now trading at $6.80. Those who bought yesterday have doubled!
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